May 5th 2009
ADM missed the estimates. It will go down today. How much? Hard to tell.
It is a bad quarter, but the trailing twelve months performance is not bad at all.
I would suggest to keep the current stop loss at $23.20.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
IPHS
On March 17th my system gave me the signal to buy IPHS.
From August 2008 to March 2009 IPHS decline from over $40 to less than $8.
During this dive it continued to make money and its PE ratio became more and more interesting.
In addition to that, from March 2nd 2009 my humble system started to tell me to watch IPHS for a possible trend inversion.
As I said, the signal arrived on March 17th and I was able to buy IPHS at $9.47. IPHS posted very good results yesterday, better than forecasts, and it gained 11%, closing over $17.
Analyzing IPHS fundamentals we see that it has an excellent value: very low PE and Price to Cash Flow, low Price Sales and average Price Book.
It still has good Current and Quick ratios, but it is using debt quite aggressively, compared to the industry average.
Finally it has first class profitability, growth and management effectiveness (best ROE in industry).
So the question is: should you buy IPHS? I would say "No". It may even go back to $40 and over, but IMHO buying IPHS now may be risky. Let's keep a stop loss on it at $11.93.
From August 2008 to March 2009 IPHS decline from over $40 to less than $8.
During this dive it continued to make money and its PE ratio became more and more interesting.
In addition to that, from March 2nd 2009 my humble system started to tell me to watch IPHS for a possible trend inversion.
As I said, the signal arrived on March 17th and I was able to buy IPHS at $9.47. IPHS posted very good results yesterday, better than forecasts, and it gained 11%, closing over $17.
Analyzing IPHS fundamentals we see that it has an excellent value: very low PE and Price to Cash Flow, low Price Sales and average Price Book.
It still has good Current and Quick ratios, but it is using debt quite aggressively, compared to the industry average.
Finally it has first class profitability, growth and management effectiveness (best ROE in industry).
So the question is: should you buy IPHS? I would say "No". It may even go back to $40 and over, but IMHO buying IPHS now may be risky. Let's keep a stop loss on it at $11.93.
Current Portfolio
May 5th 2009
| Symbol | Last Trade | Price Paid | Gain/Loss % | Stop Loss |
| ADBE | $26.69 | $18.70 | 42.72 | $23.08 |
| ADM | $26.17 | $25.40 | 3.03 | $23.20 |
| AFAM | $25.96 | $17.41 | 49.10 | $20.75 |
| DECK | $59.10 | $50.81 | 16.31 | $54.23 |
| ENDP | $16.56 | $17.38 | -4.72 | $14.89 |
| FLR | $40.77 | $37.99 | 7.31 | $35.68 |
| FLS | $70.95 | $52.57 | 34.96 | $58.23 |
| IPHS | $17.12 | $9.47 | 80.78 | $11.93 |
| MVL | $31.10 | $24.35 | 27.72 | $26.83 |
| NCTY | $9.66 | $9.30 | 3.87 | $8.10 |
| NE | $30.21 | $24.39 | 23.86 | $25.21 |
| NRG | $19.48 | $18.98 | 2.63 | $16.35 |
| RECN | $20.01 | $14.04 | 42.52 | $15.78 |
| TRLG | $17.53 | $10.53 | 66.47 | $12.79 |
| VPHM | $5.42 | $4.71 | 15.28 | $4.71 |
| WDC | $24.26 | $16.20 | 49.75 | $19.86 |
Monday, May 4, 2009
Time to buy ADM
May 4th 2009
It looks like it is time to buy ADM. It has good PE/Price Book/Price Sales/Price Cashflow.
Good financial situation. Average profitability, but good effectiveness and growth.
I would suggest to buy it and set an initial stop loss order at $23.20.
It looks like it is time to buy ADM. It has good PE/Price Book/Price Sales/Price Cashflow.
Good financial situation. Average profitability, but good effectiveness and growth.
I would suggest to buy it and set an initial stop loss order at $23.20.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Current Portfolio
May 3rd 2009
| Symbol | Last Trade | Price Paid | Gain/Loss % | Stop Loss |
| ADBE | $27.46 | $18.70 | 46.79 | $22.84 |
| AFAM | $25.09 | $17.41 | 44.11 | $20.64 |
| DECK | $56.11 | $50.81 | 10.43 | $54.23 |
| ENDP | $16.51 | $17.38 | -5.00 | $14.89 |
| FLR | $37.73 | $37.99 | -0.68 | $35.68 |
| FLS | $69.81 | $52.57 | 32.79 | $57.82 |
| IPHS | $15.33 | $9.47 | 61.87 | $11.80 |
| MVL | $30.22 | $24.35 | 24.10 | $26.68 |
| NCTY | $9.35 | $9.30 | 0.53 | $8.10 |
| NE | $28.45 | $24.39 | 16.64 | $25.21 |
| NRG | $18.98 | $18.98 | - | $16.35 |
| RECN | $19.42 | $14.04 | 38.31 | $15.78 |
| TRLG | $16.88 | $10.53 | 60.30 | $12.79 |
| VPHM | $5.49 | $4.71 | 16.56 | $4.71 |
| WDC | $23.39 | $16.20 | 44.38 | $19.86 |
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Time to buy NRG
May 2nd 2009
I believe it is time to buy NRG. Here's why.
In its industry (Utilities : Electric Utilities) NRG is fundamentally well positioned. I like its value indicators:
- NRG is in the cheapest 20% of its industry if analyzed on PE, Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow, and it has an average Price/Sales
- It has good Current and Quick Ratios, although it has a little high Debt/Equity Ratio
- Profitability is in the best 20% of its industry, as its ROI and ROE
- Finally, EPS and Sales Growth are better than industry average
In addition to that, technical indicators show that NRG's down trend is likely to be finished.
I would suggest to buy NRG with an initial stop loss at $16.35.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
