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Tuesday, May 5, 2009

IPHS

On March 17th my system gave me the signal to buy IPHS.

From August 2008 to March 2009 IPHS decline from over $40 to less than $8.
During this dive it continued to make money and its PE ratio became more and more interesting.
In addition to that, from March 2nd 2009 my humble system started to tell me to watch IPHS for a possible trend inversion.

As I said, the signal arrived on March 17th and I was able to buy IPHS at $9.47. IPHS posted very good results yesterday, better than forecasts, and it gained 11%, closing over $17.

Analyzing IPHS fundamentals we see that it has an excellent value: very low PE and Price to Cash Flow, low Price Sales and average Price Book.
It still has good Current and Quick ratios, but it is using debt quite aggressively, compared to the industry average.
Finally it has first class profitability, growth and management effectiveness (best ROE in industry).

So the question is: should you buy IPHS? I would say "No". It may even go back to $40 and over, but IMHO buying IPHS now may be risky. Let's keep a stop loss on it at $11.93.

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